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We present a Bayesian technique based on a maximum entropy method
to reconstruct the dark energy equation of state w(z) in a
non--parametric way. This MaxEnt technique allows to incorporate
relevant prior information while adjusting the degree of smoothing
of the reconstruction in response to the structure present in the
data.
After demonstrating the method on synthetic data, we apply it to
current cosmological data, separately analysing type Ia
supernovae measurement from the HST/GOODS program and the first
year Supernovae Legacy Survey (SNLS), complemented by cosmic
microwave background and baryonic acoustic oscillations data. We
find that the SNLS data are compatible with w(z) = -1 at all
redshifts 0 ≤ z <~ 1100, with errorbars of order 20%
for the most constraining choice of priors. The HST/GOODS data
exhibit a slight (about 1σ significance) preference for
w > -1 at z ~ 0.5 and a drift towards w > -1 at larger
redshifts, which however is not robust with respect to changes in
our prior specifications. We employ both a constant equation of
state prior model and a slowly varying w(z) and find that our
conclusions are only mildly dependent on this choice at high
redshifts.
Our method highlights the danger of employing parametric fits for
the unknown equation of state, that can potentially miss or
underestimate real structure in the data.
29 11 2007, ISCAP Seminar Room Pupin 908, Thursday 12:00pm
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